The Winter of Western Civilization
"The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history." - Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770–1831)
Looking around at the sorry state of modern America, with its eye-watering grocery bills and criminally incompetent leadership, with its fraudulent elections, cartel-controlled borders, and the horrors of Drag Queen Story Hour, it is easy to find oneself wondering just how future generations might recall our rapidly derailing train wreck. Of course, even this is predicated on the notion that there will be future generations at all, and not just soulless legions of lab-assembled cyborgs. But, assuming our descendants do indeed cling to their flesh-and-blood humanity, it seems all but certain that they will look back upon the most abjectly demoralized, most tragically befuddled chapter in this country’s history.
Yes, the US has faced dire economic situations before. So too has it withstood social fragmentation, food shortages, moral decay, and war. What it has not endured, however, are all these tribulations at once, yet if we are to step back and adopt a more century-spanning view of our predicament, it soon becomes clear that even this confluence of clusterfucks is not entirely without precedent.
The Strauss–Howe Generational Theory
Published in 1997, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy lays out the argument, quite at odds with today’s fashionable faith in linear time and instinctual, inexorable advancement, that history is instead cyclical, following a season-like pattern of birth, growth, decay, death, and rebirth. This sequence - which authors Neil Howe and William Strauss refer to as ‘saeculum’- typically lasts between eighty to one hundred years (or roughly the length of a human life) and can be further divided into a series of four phases or ‘turnings’, the rotation of which corresponds with a new generation’s entry into maturity.
Each time this occurs, a country experiences not just a comprehensive overhaul in regard to its culture, values, and motivations but also, by extension, its overarching character and health of its institutions.
This evolution is driven by what Strauss and Howe call ‘archetypes.’ Although every generation inevitably undergoes significant changes throughout its lifespan, they nevertheless remain tethered to the qualities, quirks, and shortcomings which comprise its core identity – an identity which will, upon the onset of middle-age and ascension into society’s leading roles, come to represent the dominant culture and thus shape those which follow. It is this dynamic that creates the recurrent nature of saeculum and while The Fourth Turning goes some way to describing those which have made up the last five hundred years, a vast bulk of its pages are devoted to breaking down the one we are presently negotiating: The Millennial Saeculum.
The High (1946–1964)
During the first turning - otherwise known as ‘The High’ - a mood of optimism and ambition prevails. As the old, outdated order recedes and is replaced by a fresh cultural and political paradigm, a population finds itself buoyed not merely by good governance and a vibrant economy, but also a level of social cohesion exceeding any within living memory.
The more historically literate reader will no doubt recognize this as a fairly succinct description of America’s post-war years. Following Japanese surrender and a flood of young men rejoining the workforce, factories modified to produce aircraft, ammunition, and armaments, now reverted to their original function, all while managing to maintain much of their wartime intensity. Electronics, household appliances, and automobiles abound. Coupled with easily accessible mortgages for returning G.I’s and a ration-weary citizenry eager to spend, spend, spend, even unskilled workers were able to provide their families with comfortable, suburban lifestyles - their homes furnished with refrigerators, range-top ovens, washing machines, and other previously unimaginable luxuries. It was the television, however, which was to prove most immediately impactful. These newly abundant devices would allow America to congeal around nightly installments of I Love Lucy, Leave it to Beaver, and later the Space Race, offering society the shows and shared experiences which would constitute some of the most enduring images of the age. As the authors put it: